Interview with the Financial Times

On Iran's military calculus revisited

I gave an interview to the Financial Times published on Sunday 02 August 2026 on the Islamic Republic of Iran’s military calculus:

Iran’s military commanders also arguably saw a window of opportunity to again demonstrate control over the strait, addressing any uncertainty arising from the signing of the memorandum.

“They decided: ‘We have to be aggressive. If we are going to do this, then the best time is now,’” said Farzan Sabet, an analyst at the Geneva Graduate Institute, adding that figures in Tehran saw worsening disruption on worldwide energy markets and the forthcoming US midterm elections as pressure points affecting White House wartime calculations.

…But there are factors beyond the battlefield. “They are not invincible,” said Sabet, of the Geneva Graduate Institute, noting that Iranian confidence can begin to erode as its already catastrophic economic outlook worsens. “There might well be a point where their calculus is forced to change.”