Interview with Business Insider on the constraints on Israel's ability to destroy Iran's nuclear program

I gave an interview to Business Insider published on Friday 04 October 2024 on the constraints on Israel's ability to destroy Iran's nuclear program.

You can read my full responses to the Business Insider interviewer’s questions, which were not included in their entirety in the final article, below:

Can you explain the likelihood of Israel choosing to target Iran's nuclear sites? And why would it be (or not be) difficult without the US' support?

Israel has pledged to retaliate at a time and place of its choosing, and this time it will likely do more than a small symbolic attack that it did after Iran's counterattack in April. At this stage of escalation, however, I don't believe they will strike major nuclear facilities (among other highly sensitive targets). They are more likely to attack military bases, including missile and drone bases where attacks against Israel have been launched from, secondary nuclear facilities, and secondary economic targets.

On the other hand, Israel may decide that it doesn't want to let a crisis go to waste, and could carry out a much larger and more destructive attack, including against Iranian nuclear facilities (among other major targets).

Israel can damage Iran's nuclear program without US assistance, but it is unclear if it can by itself carry out the type of sustained and penetrating conventional attack that would seriously set back the program. This has to do with the logistical limits of the Israeli Air Force, and access to the powerful conventional munitions necessary for reaching the most deeply buried Iranian nuclear facilities (this is assuming that Israel would not resort to nuclear weapons at this stage of escalation).